NALEO’S 2022 Latino Voter Tracking Poll

Nearly 30 Percent of Latino Voters Have Voted Early Ahead of 2022 Midterms.

New data on likely Latino voters show inflation and women’s reproductive rights as top driving issues.

WASHINGTON, D.C. – By NALEO

The National Association of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials (NALEO) Educational Fund, in partnership with BSP Research, released today the ninth and final week of results from their 2022 National Latino Voter Tracking Poll, including new data on likely Latino voters — defined as those who said they already have voted, or are almost certain they will vote, in the 2022 Election, as well as insightful crosstab data of all survey respondents to date.  The 2022 National Latino Voter Tracking Poll has surveyed a total of 2,462 unique Latino registered voters since September 2, asking about their preferences in congressional races, favorability towards President Biden, feelings about major issues facing the country, and more.  532 Latino registered voters were surveyed for Week Nine of the poll, which was conducted from October 25 – November 6, 2022 and has a margin of error of +/- 4.5 percent. 

With Election 2022 less than one day away, this week’s results found that 29 percent of Latino voters have already cast their ballots, and 47 percent are almost certain they will vote on Election Day.  These likely Latino voters ranked inflation and the rising cost of living as their most important election issues, at 47 percent, followed by women’s reproductive and abortion rights, at 39 percent.  The latter issue is ranking historically high as a top election issue — just four years ago, only three percent of Latino voters identified women’s reproductive rights as a top issue heading into Election Day.  The increased prominence this year of these rights is being largely driven by high levels of Democrats (36 percent) and Latinas (35 percent) ranking it as one of their most important issues. 

Results also show 68 percent of likely Latino voters approve of the job President Biden is doing, with likely Latino voters significantly favoring Democrats over Republicans in congressional races by a margin of 62 to 32 percent.  In the final week before Election Day, the share of voters reporting they have heard from a campaign, political party or other organization is being reported at a nine-week high, yet only 57 percent of registered voters have been contacted.  Of those who have been contacted in the last week, 74 percent say it was someone from the Democratic Party and 36 percent say it was someone from the Republican Party. 

“The 2022 Midterms are in full swing, with nearly one in three Latino voters having already cast their ballots in many of the nation’s most competitive races,” said Arturo Vargas, NALEO Educational Fund CEO.  “After nine weeks of polling, we have seen that inflation and women’s reproductive and abortion rights have consistently been the top issues motivating voters this year — with abortion rights becoming more important to Latino voters than we have ever seen in polling data before.  Both parties missed a clear opportunity this cycle to communicate directly with Latino voters, with half of voters going most of the midterm season without hearing from a single campaign or candidate.  Nevertheless, Latino voters have strong views on many of the most pressing issues of the day and are watching candidates closely in Election 2022 to see if they address their concerns.”

“With almost 30 percent of registered Latinos in our last survey saying they have already voted, we continue to see Latinos are motivated by the rise in inflation and protecting a woman’s right to an abortion.  Democrats continue to benefit from the strong support Latinos have of progressive policies on climate change, education, healthcare, and voting rights,” said Adrian Pantoja, Associate Dean of Faculty, Pitzer College, and pollster for BSP Research. 

Key Findings from Week Nine Results: Likely Latino Voters

Priority Issues

• Likely Latino voters ranked inflation and the rising cost of living as their most important election issue, at 47 percent, followed by women’s reproductive and abortion rights at 39 percent. 

• The top issues for likely Latino voters, in order of importance, include: 

◦ Inflation and the rising cost of living: 47 percent 

◦ Women’s reproductive and abortion rights: 39 percent 

◦ Improving wages and creating more jobs: 24 percent 

◦ Addressing mass shootings and gun safety policy: 21 percent 

◦ Lowering the costs of healthcare: 21 percent 

◦ Combating climate change and pollution: 21 percent 

◦ Protecting immigrant rights: 18 percent 

◦ Reducing crime: 13 percent 

◦ Creating more affordable housing: 11 percent 

◦ Lowering taxes: 9 percent 

• When asked about key policy issues of the day, likely Latino voters expressed overwhelming support for moving several current social causes forward.  Among likely Latino voters:  

◦ 89 percent support allowing Medicare to negotiate lower prices on prescription drugs 

◦ 84 percent support passing a new Voting Rights Act 

◦ 78 percent support canceling up to $20,000 in student debt for people who earn less than $125,000 a year 

◦ 78 percent support protecting DACA recipients from deportation 

◦ 76 percent support passing a law to guarantee access to abortion 

◦ 74 percent support passing a federal law to make possession of marijuana legal for personal recreational use 

◦ 73 percent support creating a path to citizenship for undocumented immigrants

◦ 72 percent support a presidential executive order to pardon people convicted of marijuana possession under federal law  

Voter Preferences and Favorability

• When asked who they plan to elect to the U.S. House in November, 62 percent of likely Latino voters support Democratic candidates and 32 percent support Republicans. 

• When asked who they plan to elect to the U.S. Senate in November, 61 percent of likely Latino voters support Democratic candidates and 32 percent support Republicans. 

• 68 percent of likely Latino voters approve of the way Joe Biden is handling his job as president, and 32 percent disapprove.

• When asked how they are doing compared to two years ago, 37 percent of likely Latino voters say they are doing better, 31 percent say they are doing worse, and 32 percent say they are doing about the same

• 79 percent of likely Latino voters are closely following the midterm elections.

• However, among those surveyed, 42 percent of likely Latino voters say they have not been contacted at all by any political party, campaign, or any other organization.   

◦ Of the 58 percent who said they had been contacted, 76 percent indicated someone from the Democratic Party contacted them, and 34 percent indicated it was someone from the Republican Party. 

For more information on the 2022 National Latino Voter Tracking Poll:

• Week Nine Toplines can be found here

• Toplines of Likely Latino Voters can be found here

• Nine-week crosstab data can be found here

• Last week’s state crosstab data can be found here

NALEO Educational Fund has been conducting general election tracking polls since 2016. 11.6 million Latinos are projected to cast ballots in 2022 — closely mirroring the community’s historic turnout in 2018 — according to the organization’s 2022 Latino Vote Projections released earlier this year. 

NALEO Educational Fund also released its Races To Watch analysis last week which shows that Latinos are poised to make major strides in increasing their representation across federal and state offices following Election 2022.  For a full breakdown of Latino voter impact in key contests, including U.S. House races, see here.

Methodology

On behalf of NALEO Educational Fund, BSP interviewed 532 Latino registered voters nationwide from October 25 – November 6, 2022.  A fresh sample of 266 registered voters were added and combined with 266 interviews conducted in Week Eight to create a rolling average of 532 for Week Nine.  Interviews are collected every day through random selection from an online database of Latinos who are verified to be registered voters.  The poll is available in English or Spanish at the discretion of the respondent and based on a national profile of the Latino electorate.  Final data are weighted to match best estimates from the U.S. Census for Latino voters with respect to state, age, gender, nativity, education, and party affiliation.  Each week the sample contains a margin of error of +/- 4.5 percent.  Survey design and data collection are performed by BSP Research. 

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About NALEO Educational Fund

NALEO Educational Fund is the nation’s leading non-profit, non-partisan organization that facilitates the full participation of Latinos in the American political process, from citizenship to public service.